Thursday, January 22, 2009

Does Brack Obama have a magic wand or Aladin's lamp?

The world, including India, may be entitled to wish and dream that Barack Obama will be able to wield a magic wand and with it the woes that it faces will vanish, especially the economic crisis.
This is a time of great euphoria, great hopes and reality tends to remain in suspension, not even in animated suspension.

Realities, harsh realities of bread and butter, or sheer survival, have to be winked away by millions in stupor over the most gorgeous Presidential inauguration, costing 150 million dollars.
What is or how much is 150 million dollars for the greatest spectacle on earth, with millions watching the extravaganza around the world, most of them sitting in front of their TVs?
It is the display of the American dream, American power, come alive for days, weeks, months and possibly two years backwards.

To come down to the ground without a hard landing after all the church going, chanting and singing, dancing and partying, the question that comes to mind is: does Barack Obama have a magic wand? Or does he have the Alladin’s Lamp, if one were to change the metaphor?
Yes, perhaps. So say all of them. So say all of us. He’s a jolly good fellow, full of promise, full of hype, full of youth, full of brains, full of brains trusts, the best team that could be assembled on the face of it. So why can’t this team work miracles.

In spite of Barack Obama’s warning that the crises that the world and America face can’t be wished away nor overcome in a year or even in his present term of four years. The problems are too great, too big to reckon, to big to counter, yet hope springs eternal in human breast and man must never give up trying like the proverbial spider. He will keep trying and he will not give up. Experts have pointed out that the world economic recession will remain for the current year and continue for one year more before a turnaround can be expected. Whether it will materialize or not is another matter.

India may in a small way be not overly affected, but being part of the global economy, it cannot escape the consequences of what is happening in America, Europe as demand and sales slide not only in the west, but even in India. The very rich and famous may be dining and wining, but are they also engaged in impulse buying even though new luxury brands of European cars manage to sell a few pieces and can be seen in the streets of New Delhi and South Delhi as well as other cities of India. But that does not count for much.

On the economic front, the Barack Obama magic will be at work with massive release of money to banks, big corporations and other vested interests and these will run into hundreds of billions, possibly a few trillions of dollars year after year to save America. Poor and middle class Americans will receive $300 billion in tax refunds so that they can spend it in the marketplace and save industry and retail trade. Similar handouts may also be in the pipeline at budget time in July, but it has been made clear that the rich and super rich will be spared of new taxes or higher income tax because they have the power to call the shots in the system of governance and no ruler can afford to earn their ire or displeasure. They move the wheels of the economy. They are the key advisers and they are heard with respect. They are also the contributors to the political system and no election can be won without their support. The new President received big top dollar in the election campaign in the past two years.

President Obama will also seek to save American jobs rather than transfer work by outsourcing to Bangalore or other destinations around the world, though this will happen slowly, but some out-sourcing to India has already been affected by recession in the US and Europe.

In an important area, certain things are becoming clear, especially for India and Indians and their rulers might do well to realize what the American priorities are for South Asia.

What are they? These are being made clear by Mrs. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the new Secretary of State and foreign policy czar, as well as the British Foreign Secretary, Mr. David Milliband, repeatedly while in India and later in Washington, where he attended the great inaugural show. These are that Afghanistan is of prime importance and surge in international troops to curb Al Qaida and Taliban has top priority. This in their perceptions brings Pakistan in focus and makes it a centerpiece of their policy formulations, implying thereby that the Mumbai terrorist attacks of 26/11 are a big, even if not minor, irritant in the geopolitics of this region. Mr. Milliband is important in carrying forward the American initiatives in South Asia as Britain has clout with more than 50 nations of the Commonwealth.

The implication is also that Pakistan is not considered a rogue State and will not be treated as such even if it will continue to come under pressure to do more to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure in mainland Pakistan and occupied areas of Kashmir. Pakistan will continue to be bailed out of its financial crisis with IMF and World Bank as well as American doles. India will receive a lot of words of sympathy, a lot of support, a great many high profile visits, but also some sermons at the same level as Pakistan.
India has been boasting that in the George Bush era, the hyphened status of this nation by the world powers had ended, but that is no longer true. It is being made clear that in view of the enormous importance of the Afghan war, the need to woo Pakistan and use its good offices is enormous and its tantrums and threats will be quietly tolerated and responded with counter-threats, bellicose they might well be on both sides. India would do well to take these factors into its calculations in dealings with the world, especially America.

Mrs. Hillary Clinton will carry forward the legacy of her husband, Bill Clinton, who as President, was not sympathetic to India for more than seven years of the eight years of his Presidency and when he came to India in the last lap of Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, he expressed great friendship, which did not translate into any concrete action. His wife may well be tougher as the points person of the foreign policy with her hard-nosed deputies traveling to Indian shores.

1 comment:

  1. Also India would need to be concerned by President Obama's recent remarks that the US is losing the war in Afghanistan. His desire to talk to the " moderate " elements in the Taliban show that the Americans may have lost the will to have continued direct engagement in the region. If the US does go ahead and open a line of communication with the Taliban, it casts a shadow on the future of Karzai's government. This would mean an uncertain future for moderate voices in Afghanistan and will shift the balance of power in favour of the Taliban. This is obviously not good news for India.

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